researchOpenAI

Study: Access to AI Advice Nearly Eliminates People's Willingness to Say "I Don't Know"

TL;DR

A five-study research project with 3,132 participants found that access to AI advice—even from a model that was mostly wrong—nearly wiped out people's willingness to admit uncertainty. Confidence rose sharply while accuracy fell.

3 min read
0

Researchers Marcoccia, Quattrociocchi, and Capraro ran five experiments with a combined 3,132 participants to test whether the mere availability of AI advice changes how people handle uncertainty. The result: access to a language model nearly eliminated participants' willingness to say "I don't know," even when that model's advice was almost always wrong.

The study used deliberately obscure questions—fine visual details from movies, such as the color of a team uniform in Bend It Like Beckham—selected because they rarely appear in online text and are prime hallucination targets. The AI model used for these questions, Step 3.5 Flash, was wrong most of the time. Other models tested across the studies, including GPT-5.5, Claude 4.6 Sonnet, and Gemini 3.5 Flash, generally answered correctly but sometimes failed on harder questions.

The numbers

In Studies 1a and 1b, participants without AI access withheld judgment on 36 percent and 44 percent of questions, respectively. With AI access, those figures dropped to 6 percent and 3 percent.

In Study 2, which measured confidence without financial incentives, AI access pushed self-reported confidence to 75.9 out of 100, versus 29.6 without AI—roughly 2.5 times higher. Over the same period, the share of correct answers fell from 27.6 percent to 10.0 percent. Across all studies, non-incentivized participants with AI access got 9.2 percent of questions right, compared to 27.5 percent without AI access—despite answering more questions overall.

Financial incentives helped, but only modestly

Studies 2 through 4 added a $0.10 reward for correct answers, a $0.10 penalty for wrong ones, and no penalty or reward for abstaining. The researchers had pre-registered a hypothesis that incentives would boost willingness to abstain, and that AI availability would weaken that effect. None of the three studies found a statistically significant interaction between the two factors.

Incentives did reduce how often participants sought AI advice (4.53 versus 5.27 out of six possible requests in Study 3) and improved accuracy when AI was consulted. Judgment suspension rose slightly under incentives but remained well below the no-AI control condition in every case.

In Study 4, the AI's answer was displayed automatically, without participants requesting it—modeling how search engines now surface AI summaries unprompted. The effect on abstention was barely different: judgment suspension fell from 35 percent (no AI) to 1 percent (unsolicited AI answer) without incentives, and from about 39 percent to 7 percent with incentives.

What the researchers argue

The authors frame the pattern using the term "Epistemia"—accepting AI answers because they sound convincing rather than verifying them. A language model, they note, is structurally compelled to produce an answer; it never pauses when it doesn't know something, and users appear to adopt that same lack of restraint. This runs counter to established advice-taking research, in which people typically underweight outside advice, moving only about a third of the way toward an advisor's position. Here, participants moved further, not less, toward AI answers—even in cases where the AI was demonstrably unreliable. The authors state that AI access converted some previously correct answers into errors.

What this means

This research adds to a growing body of work—including a Swiss Business School study of 666 participants linking AI trust to reduced critical thinking, and Microsoft research on AI's demands on metacognition—suggesting that AI use reshapes not just what people know, but how willing they are to admit what they don't. The finding that financial incentives failed to meaningfully restore abstention is notable: it suggests the effect isn't simply laziness that money can fix, but something closer to a shift in how people calibrate their own uncertainty once an always-confident answer generator is available. As AI-generated summaries increasingly appear unsolicited in search results and writing tools, the practical risk isn't only wrong answers—it's a shrinking space in which people are willing to notice they don't have one.

Related Articles

analysis

Only 10 of OpenAI's 719 math manuscripts include chain of thought, falling short of expert guidelines

OpenAI released 719 manuscripts claiming solutions to open math problems, but only 10 include the model's chain of thought. A Cambridge and King's College London paper also documents at least two discrepancies between the natural-language and Lean versions of OpenAI's Navier-Stokes-derived result.

research

OpenAI publishes 372 AI-generated math results on GitHub, claims they solve or advance open problems

OpenAI has published 372 mathematical results generated by an unnamed internal frontier model, hosted on GitHub instead of in peer-reviewed journals. The company claims each result solves or substantially advances an open problem, at an average of about three hours of ChatGPT Pro Thinking compute per result. Many include Lean formalizations, but independent validation of significance is still pending.

research

Microsoft's Probabilistic Bias Correction improves ECMWF forecasts for 98% of precipitation targets, runs on CPUs

Microsoft Research has published Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC) in Nature and released it as open-source software. The researchers report it improved a leading ECMWF physics-based model for 98% of precipitation targets and 92% of temperature targets at 2–6 week lead times, and that it runs on CPUs.

research

Ai2's HiRO-ACEv2 generates global 3 km climate data at about 1/300th the cost of X-SHiELD, it claims

Ai2 released HiRO-ACEv2, an AI climate emulator that it says generates global 3 km data at about 1/300th the cost of the physics-based X-SHiELD model. The new HiROv2 downscaling model predicts multiple fields at once and, per Ai2, matches X-SHiELD statistics to within 3% even for one-in-a-million events.

Comments

Loading...